Brian Lawrence, Owner .163.


Business Models

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A Financial Hedge for Liquid Asphalt

Yep, you read that right.

I have created a proprietary algorithm based on petroleum coker outputs that use financial surrogates to create a synthetic asphalt hedge and it’s amazingly affordable.

I back-tested the model against 326 weeks of published coker alternative asphalt values and ran a regression analysis (r2) to see how well the two data sets correlate to each other. I was actually surprised to see the value come out to 0.983 (meaning the model correlates to actual data 98.3% of the time) and that the model calculated values were above the coker values in every instance(See graph).

In other words, the model never predicted a value below the published value. To me, this adds a degree of confidence when either producing a financial outcome or predicting a future price, whether up or down. I think in the near future, coker values will provide the floor for wholesale asphalt pricing.

I also use this algorithm to predict future asphalt prices for bidding or other purposes. If you would like to know more about how this methodology can help you manage risk, contact me right away, number is up top, or use contact form below.

A Financial Hedge
for Liquid Asphalt!
(click to learn more)

Contact Brian Now

The Mission

Brian Lawrence created Asphalt Unlimited, LLC to help asphalt plant owners/highway contractors obtain liquid asphalt supply below market values and to assist in limiting exposure risks inherent with crude oil dependent products such as liquid asphalt.  Crude oil volatility has never been higher and asphalt plant owners have never experienced such fluctuations in asphalt prices as are currently being experienced.  Asphalt Unlimited can help manage risks by providing a wide array of services and new, innovative ideas to asphalt plant owners and contractors.

About Brian

Brian has been a Senior Vice-President at C.W. Matthews Contracting for 20 years and Chief Operating Officer for Bright Star Energy for 12 years. He was the sole creator of C.W. Matthews’ liquid asphalt business, which included design and operation of a green field asphalt terminal in Rockmart, Georgia. He has purchased more than 2 million tons of liquid asphalt on a wholesale and retail basis via truck, rail, and brown-water barges. He has also produced more than 260,000 tons of Polymer Modified Asphalt and has bid more than 7,000 asphalt projects.

The Strada Fund &
Unity Energy Partners, LLC

Brian is President and Founding Member of Unity Energy Partners, LLC which offers the Strada Fund, an energy investment fund specifically designed for the asphalt industry.